Mischaracterizing wildlife trade and its impacts may mislead policy processes (Open Access)
Overexploitation is a key driver of biodiversity loss but the relationship between the use and trade of species and conservation outcomes is not always straightforward. Accurately characterizing wildlife trade and understanding the impact it has on wildlife populations are therefore critical to evaluating the potential threat trade poses to species and informing local to international policy responses. However, a review of recent research that uses wildlife and trade-related databases to investigate these topics highlights three relatively widespread issues: (1) mischaracterization of the threat that trade poses to certain species or groups, (2) misinterpretation of wildlife trade data (and illegal trade data in particular), resulting in the mischaracterization of trade, and (3) misrepresentation of international policy processes and instruments. This is concerning because these studies may unwittingly misinform policymaking to the detriment of conservation, for example by undermining positive outcomes for species and people along wildlife supply chains. Moreover, these issues demonstrate flaws in the peer-review process. As wildlife trade articles published in peer-reviewed journals can be highly influential, we propose ways for authors, journal editors, database managers, and policymakers to identify, understand, and avoid these issues as we all work towards more sustainable futures.
Challender, D. W. S., Brockington, D., Hoffmann, M., Kolby, J. E., Massé, F., Natusch, D. J. D., Oldfield, T. E. E., Outhwaite, W., Sas-Rolfes, M., Conde, D., & Milner-Gulland, E. J. Mischaracterizing wildlife trade and its impacts may mislead policy processes. Conservation Letters. 2021;e12832. https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12832
Published: Aug 2021 | Categories: Research Articles

Oxford Martin Programme on Wildlife Trade Progress Report (Y4)
In Year 4, we have been moving towards the next phase of the programme; our team's salaries are no longer being supported from the programme's funds, and our governance and reporting structures are evolving into more light-touch forms. Several students are completing their work, and we have been thinking towards the future for the programme. In this report, we provide a summary of our work in Year 4 as well as reflecting on progress made by the programme.
Published: Jun 2021 | Categories: Reports
Oxford Martin Programme on Wildlife Trade_Year 4 Report

Wildlife Crime: From Theory to Practice (Book Review)
Wildlife Crime: from Theory to Practice, an edited volume of 13 contributions from 26 authors across multiple continents, brings crime science and criminology to bear on the illegal exploitation of wildlife.
Kuiper, T. (2019). Wildlife Crime: From Theory to Practice edited by William D. Moreto (2018) 306 pp., Temple University Press, Philadelphia, USA. ISBN 978-1-4399-1472-4 (pbk), USD 37.95. Oryx, 53(4), 788-788. doi:10.1017/S0030605319000930
Published: May 2021 | Categories: Books & Chapters

Campaigning to bring about change (Open Access)
This chapter examines campaigning: what it is, when it is needed and who conducts campaigns. Drawing upon examples from the NGO conservation sector, we discuss how to plan and execute a campaign, and explore the different types of campaign: behaviour change, policy change and fundraising. Finally, we consider some of the potential pitfalls, including a lack of a strong evidence base, overstating claims of success, the introduction of bias, conflicting views of co-organising partners, the inappropriate use of emotion and the risk of unintended consequences.
C. Dean and A. Hinsley (2020). Campaigning to bring about change. In Sutherland, W. J., Brotherton, P. N. M., Davies, Z. G., Ockendon, N., Pettorelli, N., Vickery, J. A. (Eds) (2020) Conservation Research, Policy and Practice. Cambridge University Press.
Published: May 2021 | Categories: Books & Chapters

Taking pangolin conservation to scale
This chapter draws on the contents of this volume and considers what the next 20 years may look like for pangolin conservation. The chapter envisions a future scenario, whereby healthy, representative populations of each species thrive across a diversity of sites in Asia and Africa. Key challenges to achieving this vision are outlined, including high human population growth rates in some pangolin range countries and the increasing organization of pangolin trafficking networks. However, the chapter posits that there is cause for optimism based on greater knowledge of pangolins and necessary conservation actions, increasing levels of interdisciplinary collaboration to address threats, and growing interest from donors in funding urgently needed conservation interventions.
Challender, DWS., Nash, H.C., Waterman, C., Hoffmann, R. (2020). Taking pangolin conservation to scale. In: Challender, DWS., Nash, H., Waterman, C. (Eds.) (2020). Pangolins: Science, Society and Conservation. Academic Press.
Published: May 2021 | Categories: Books & Chapters

Conservation strategies and priority actions for pangolins
This chapter recognizes pangolins as historically overlooked species and the lack of established conservation strategies for them. It discusses the rationale and urgent need for the development of such strategies in order to guide successful pangolin conservation, especially given the threats they face, but also the growth in their profile and associated funding support. The chapter draws upon IUCN best practice guidance for developing conservation strategies, and in particular embraces IUCN SSC’s “Assess-Plan-Act” model and how it can be used to ensure that future strategies are integrative, rigorously analysed, and of a high technical standard. The chapter concludes that developing strategies is essential to determining the most appropriate conservation interventions for pangolins and ensuring that limited funding is spent wisely.
Challender, DWS., Hoffmann, R., Hoffmann, M. (2020). Conservation strategies and priority actions for pangolins. In: Challender, DWS., Nash, H., Waterman, C. (Eds.) (2020). Pangolins: Science, Society and Conservation. Academic Press.
Published: May 2021 | Categories: Books & Chapters

Research needs for pangolins
Pangolins are among the most poorly known mammalian orders, in part because they have historically received little research and conservation attention. This chapter provides an overview of key research needs for pangolins and their conservation. Since pangolins are principally threatened by overexploitation, there is a critical need to quantify the impact of exploitation, both for local use and international trafficking, on pangolin populations. This is reliant on the development of methods to accurately and reliably monitor populations, which, in turn, necessitates the need for research into pangolin life history, ecology, and biology, for which there is little knowledge for some species. Evaluation of the impact of policy decisions on trade dynamics is also needed. Other research needs in the areas of genetics, forensics, trade and policy, husbandry, veterinary care, and climate change are also discussed.
Pietersen DW., Challender, DWS. (2020). Research needs for pangolins. In: Challender, DWS., Nash, H., Waterman, C. (Eds.) (2020). Pangolins: Science, Society and Conservation. Academic Press.
Published: May 2021 | Categories: Books & Chapters

Developing robust monitoring methodologies for pangolin conservation
There is a need for pangolin-specific monitoring methods to increase understanding of pangolin ecology, allow for formal assessment of conservation interventions, and inform future management decisions. This chapter presents a general systems ecology model to outline current understanding of what drives pangolin densities and distributions, and elucidate gaps in knowledge. It presents key challenges to monitoring pangolin populations across species and geographic ranges and identifies methods with proven success, and those with promise. Recognizing the critical status of some pangolin populations, it highlights the need for targeted monitoring objectives over surveillance monitoring and identifies how monitoring methods and study designs structured around well-developed questions can contribute to adaptive monitoring and management frameworks.
Morin, D., Challender, DWS., Ichu, IG., Ingram, DI., Nash, HC., Panaino, W., Panjang, E., Sun, NCM., Willcox, D. (2020) Developing robust monitoring methodologies for pangolin conservation. In: Challender, DWS., Nash, H., Waterman, C. (Eds.) (2020). Pangolins: Science, Society and Conservation. Academic Press.
Published: May 2021 | Categories: Books & Chapters

Evaluating the impact of pangolin farming on conservation
Pangolins are subject to an international commercial trade ban but demand for pangolin derivatives persists and may be growing in parts of Africa and Asia. Some actors are attempting to breed pangolins in captivity for commercial purposes, raising concerns about potential adverse impacts upon wild populations. This chapter introduces key variable factors and theoretical insights, economic and otherwise, that warrant consideration when evaluating the potential impact of wildlife farming, and elucidates their relevance to pangolin conservation. The immediate conservation impact of pangolin farming is unclear due to a number of uncertainties. Research priorities to understand potential future impacts are identified and discussed. These include economic incentives for wild harvesting, the nature of consumer demand and substitutability of pangolin products, how legal and illegal markets for pangolin products may interact, and stockpile policies. Further research is needed in order to improve understanding of the potential impacts of pangolin farming.
‘t Sas-Rolfes, M., Challender, DWS. (2020). Evaluating the impact of pangolin farming on conservation. In: Challender, DWS., Nash, H., Waterman, C. (Eds.) (2020). Pangolins: Science, Society and Conservation. Academic Press.
Published: May 2021 | Categories: Books & Chapters

Engaging local communities in responses to illegal trade in pangolins: who, why and how?
The conservation of pangolins and protecting them from poaching and illegal trade can generally best be achieved with the support and partnership of the indigenous peoples and local communities who live in and around key habitats and wildlife areas. This chapter summarizes key lessons and findings on engaging and supporting communities in reducing illegal wildlife trade from a joint program of work carried out by the IUCN CEESP/SSC Sustainable Use and Livelihoods Specialist Group (SULi), IIED, TRAFFIC and partners over several years. It introduces a theory of change with four pathways outlining how community-level actions can alter incentives for poaching, and sets out some broader lessons for fostering trust and cooperation with local communities and indigenous peoples critical to the conservation of pangolins.
Cooney, R., Challender, DWS. (2019). Engaging local communities in responses to illegal trade in pangolins: who, why and how? In: Challender, DWS., Nash, H., Waterman, C. (Eds.) (2019). Pangolins: Science, Society and Conservation. Academic Press.
Published: May 2021 | Categories: Books & Chapters

Addressing trade threats to pangolins in the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES)
Pangolins have had a complex history in CITES, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora. This chapter introduces CITES and discusses how pangolins have been managed in the convention, whether it has been effective at ensuring sustainability in international pangolin trade, and future options for conserving pangolins using CITES. The introduction of zero export quotas for international commercial trade in wild-caught Asian pangolins in the year 2000, in combination with unilateral measures, appears to have contributed to the near cessation of trade in Asian pangolin skins by the early 2000s. However, CITES has otherwise largely failed to ensure sustainability in international trade in pangolins. As all eight pangolin species are included in Appendix I, mechanisms that deal with non-compliance (e.g., Article XIII, Resolution Conf. 14.3) and illegal trade (e.g., a bespoke illegal trade system) offer means of furthering pangolin conservation using CITES.
Challender, DWS., O’Criodain, C. (2020). Addressing trade threats to pangolins in the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). In: Challender, DWS., Nash, H., Waterman, C. (Eds.) (2020). Pangolins: Science, Society and Conservation. Academic Press.
Published: May 2021 | Categories: Books & Chapters

International trade and trafficking in pangolins
Pangolins have long been in commercial international trade. This chapter examines international trade and trafficking in the species from 1900 to July 2019. In the 20th century, trade mainly involved Asian pangolin skins, scales, and individuals, and contributed to population declines, especially in the Chinese and Sunda species. This included illegal trade that dwarfed international trade reported to CITES. Between August 2000 and July 2019 the equivalent of an estimated ~895,000 pangolins were trafficked globally, though the actual figure is likely higher. This involved Asian and African pangolins, predominantly scales and individuals, and was predominantly destined to Asian markets, mainly China and Vietnam. The drivers of pangolin poaching and trafficking are complex and addressing them requires multi-faceted interventions, including effective protection at source sites, strong law enforcement along trafficking routes, and changes in consumer behaviour.
Challender, DWS., Shepherd, CR., Heinrich, S., Katsis, L. (2020). International trade and trafficking in pangolins, 1900-2019. In: Challender, DWS., Nash, H., Waterman, C. (Eds.) (2020). Pangolins: Science, Society and Conservation. Academic Press.
Published: May 2021 | Categories: Books & Chapters

Pangolins: Science, Society and Conservation
Pangolins: Science, Society and Conservation brings together experts from around the world to document the most up-to-date scientific knowledge on pangolins and their conservation. It chronicles threats facing the species, explores the current initiatives required to protect them, and looks ahead at the future of pangolin science and conservation efforts. Led by a team of editors with more than 20 years collective experience in pangolin conservation, this book includes accounts of the species’ evolution, morphology, and systematics. It discusses the role of pangolins in historically symbolic, mythological, and ritualistic practices across Africa, Asia, and Europe, as well as contemporary practices including international trafficking. Chapters in the latter portion of this book focus on conservation solutions, including law enforcement and international policy, behaviour change, local community engagement, ex situ conservation, tourism, and other interventions needed to secure the future of the species.
Challender, DWS., Nash, H., Waterman, C. (2020). Pangolins: Science, Society and Conservation. Academic Press.
Published: May 2021 | Categories: Books & Chapters

A systematic survey of online trade: Trade in Saiga antelope horn on Russian-language websites (Open Access)
Trade in wildlife is increasingly moving online, which creates significant challenges for monitoring. Numerous reports have highlighted the extent of the trade but they rarely present a methodology to facilitate replication or any form of meta-analysis. Here we present a systematic approach to surveying online trade in wildlife that builds on the well-established systematic evidence review approach. We apply this approach to investigate the online trade in saiga antelope Saiga tatarica horns on Russian-language websites. Of the 419 advertisements, the majority (217, 52%) were from Ukraine, followed by Russia (122, 29%), and were largely offers to sell (254, 61%), and represented one-off advertisements. Trade was identified on 89 websites, with the majority being on classified ads websites (68, 76%), auction.violity.com being the most popular site (156, 37%). Prices varied significantly depending on the country and how the horn was being offered (i.e. by weight or length). It is clear that saiga horn is being traded over the internet, with Ukraine and Russia comprising c. 80% of advertisements on Russian-language websites. Individuals with single advertisements dominate, suggesting website fidelity, although website usage is country-specific, potentially reflecting domestic trade. This suggests country-specific interventions could be particularly effective. A systematic approach for investigating online wildlife trade provides a clear and transparent methodology, and, given data collection is resource-intensive, allows studies to be replicated so that trends.
Roberts, D., Mun, K., & Milner-Gulland, E. (2021). A systematic survey of online trade: Trade in Saiga antelope horn on Russian-language websites. Oryx, 1-8. doi:10.1017/S0030605320001313
Published: Apr 2021 | Categories: Research Articles

Characterising wild meat consumers in Vietnam
In early 2019, Alegria Olmedo travelled to Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam to conduct research on the consumption of meat from wild animals in local restaurants. She shortlisted a few restaurants where this consumption took place and had the opportunity to visit some of them. In this post she describes one such visit. Alegria Olmedo and colleagues’ research ‘Who eats wild meat? Profiling consumers in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam‘ and plain language summary ‘Audience segmentation of wild meat consumers in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam‘ are available online now.
Olmedo, A. Characterising wild meat consumers in Vietnam. Relational Thinking, People and Nature, 21 April 2021, https://relationalthinkingblog.com/2021/04/21/characterising-wild-meat-consumers-in-vietnam. Publications, Research.
Published: Apr 2021 | Categories: Opinions

Who eats wild meat? Profiling consumers in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam (Open Access)
1. Overexploitation for consumption of meat from wild animals in urban centres currently threatens numerous species across the globe. Indiscriminate offtake to satisfy demand for wild meat affects a range of wildlife of conservation concern in Vietnam. It is essential to understand the consumption of wild meat in Vietnam in order to ensure it is not detrimental to wild species. 2. We apply the principles of target audience segmentation to a sample of 384 respondents who had consumed wild meat in the previous year in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. We carried out a cluster analysis to divide wild meat consumers into subgroups considering demographic, behavioural and psychographic variables. 3. We found three consumer groups: Classic Consumers (older, less educated), Up‐and‐coming Professionals (younger, wealthier, more educated) and Students. Compared to Students, Classic Consumers and Up‐and‐coming Professionals were significantly more likely to have paid for their meal at wild meat restaurants and to have ordered a combination of wild meat and other types of food rather than other types of food only. 4. Classic Consumers match previous characterisations of wild meat consumers, but the other two groups should also be considered in demand reduction campaigns. As Students appear to have limited influence on restaurant/food choices in certain social contexts and less propensity to eat wild meat, Up‐and‐coming Professionals may be an important target group. 5. A wide variety of species are consumed in wild meat restaurants. Some, such as pangolins, are of conservation concern and were consumed by 5% of our respondents. This is potentially an unsustainable level of consumption. 6. Our study showcases an audience segmentation approach to understanding wildlife consumers and provides insights for behavioural interventions and further research to curtail demand for wild meat in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam where it is of conservation concern.
Olmedo, A, Veríssimo, D, Challender, DWS, Dao, HTT, Milner‐Gulland, EJ. Who eats wild meat? Profiling consumers in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. People Nat. 2021; 00: 1– 11. https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.10208
Published: Apr 2021 | Categories: Research Articles

Uncovering prevalence of pangolin consumption using a technique for investigating sensitive behaviour (Open Access)
Pangolins have been exploited throughout history but evidence points to population declines across parts of their ranges since the 1960s, especially in Asia. This is the result of overexploitation for local use and international trade and trafficking of their derivatives. The prevalence of the consumption of pangolin products has been estimated for different localities in Viet Nam but, considering that national legislation prohibits the purchase of pangolin products, previous research has not accounted for the potential for biased responses. In this study, we treat pangolin consumption as a sensitive behaviour and estimate consumption prevalence of pangolin meat, scales and wine (a whole pangolin or pangolin parts or fluids soaked or mixed in rice wine) in Ho Chi Minh City using a specialized questioning method, the unmatched count technique. We also characterize the demographics of consumers. Our results suggest there is active consumption of all three pangolin products, with a best-estimate prevalence of 7% of a representative sample of Ho Chi Minh City residents for pangolin meat, 10% for scales and 6% for wine. Our prevalence estimates exceed estimates from direct questions, providing evidence for the sensitivity of pangolin consumption. We compared our analysis of consumer characteristics with existing profiles of pangolin consumers and found substantial differences, suggesting that consumption occurs among broader demographic groups than previously described. Our findings suggest that efforts to reduce demand for pangolin consumption in Viet Nam should focus on a broader range of consumers than previously identified.
Olmedo, A., Veríssimo, D., Milner-Gulland, E., Hinsley, A., Dao, H., & Challender, D. (2021). Uncovering prevalence of pangolin consumption using a technique for investigating sensitive behaviour. Oryx, 1-9. doi:10.1017/S0030605320001040
Published: Apr 2021 | Categories: Research Articles

Evaluating a large-scale online behaviour change intervention aimed at wildlife product consumers in Singapore (Open Access)
Interventions to shift the behaviour of consumers using unsustainable wildlife products are key to threatened species conservation. Whether these interventions are effective is largely unknown due to a dearth of detailed evaluations. We previously conducted a country-level online behaviour change intervention targeting consumers of the Critically Endangered saiga antelope (Saiga tatarica) horn in Singapore. To evaluate intervention impact, we carried out in-person consumer surveys with >2,000 individuals pre- and post-intervention (2017 and 2019), and 93 in-person post-intervention surveys with traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) shopkeepers (2019). The proportion of self-reported high-usage saiga horn consumers in the target audience (Chinese Singaporean women aged 35–59) did not change significantly from pre- to post-intervention (24.4% versus 22.6%). However, post-intervention the target audience was significantly more likely than the non-target audience to accurately recall the intervention message and to report a decrease in saiga horn usage (4% versus 1% reported a behaviour change). Within the target audience, high-usage consumers were significantly more likely than lower-usage consumers to recall the message and report a behaviour change. Across respondents who reported a decrease in saiga horn usage, they cited the intervention message as a specific reason for their behaviour change significantly more than other reasons. Additionally, across all respondents, the belief that saiga is a common species in the wild decreased significantly from pre- to post-intervention. TCM shopkeepers, however, cited factors such as price and availability as the strongest influences on saiga horn sales. In sum, the intervention did significantly influence some consumers but the reduction of high-usage consumer frequency was not significant at the population level. We explore reasons for these findings, including competing consumer influences, characteristics of the intervention, and evaluation timing. This work suggests our intervention approach has potential, and exemplifies a multi-pronged in-person evaluation of an online wildlife trade consumer intervention.
Doughty H, Milner-Gulland EJ, Lee JSH, Oliver K, Carrasco LR, Veríssimo D (2021) Evaluating a large-scale online behaviour change intervention aimed at wildlife product consumers in Singapore. PLoS ONE 16(3): e0248144. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248144
Published: Mar 2021 | Categories: Research Articles

Complex interactions between commercial and noncommercial drivers of illegal trade for a threatened felid
Illegal trade and human‐wildlife conflict are two key drivers of biodiversity loss and are recognized as leading threats to large carnivores. Although human‐wildlife conflict involving jaguars (Panthera onca) has received significant attention in the past, less is known about traditional use or commercial trade in jaguar body parts, including their potential links with retaliatory killing. Understanding the drivers of jaguar killing, trade and consumption is necessary to develop appropriate jaguar conservation strategies, particularly as demand for jaguar products appears to be rising due to Chinese demand. We interviewed 1107 rural households in north‐western Bolivia, an area with an active history of human–jaguar conflict, which has also been at the epicentre of recent jaguar trade cases. We collected information on participants' experiences with jaguars, their jaguar killing, trading and consuming behaviours and potential drivers of these behaviours. We found that the relationships between local people and jaguars are complex and are driven largely by traditional practices, opportunism, human–jaguar conflict and market incentives from foreign and domestic demand, in the absence of law awareness and enforcement. Addressing jaguar trade and building human–jaguar coexistence will require a multifaceted approach that considers the multiple drivers of jaguar killing, trade and consumption, from foreign and local demand to human–jaguar conflict.
Arias, M., Hinsley, A., Nogales‐Ascarrunz, P., Carvajal‐Bacarreza, P.J., Negroes, N., Glikman, J.A. and Milner‐Gulland, E. (2021), Complex interactions between commercial and noncommercial drivers of illegal trade for a threatened felid. Anim. Conserv.. https://doi.org/10.1111/acv.12683
Published: Mar 2021 | Categories: Research Articles

“Saving Lives, Protecting Livelihoods, and Safeguarding Nature”: Risk-Based Wildlife Trade Policy for Sustainable Development Outcomes Post-COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused huge loss of life, and immense social and economic harm. Wildlife trade has become central to discourse on COVID-19, zoonotic pandemics, and related policy responses, which must focus on “saving lives, protecting livelihoods, and safeguarding nature.” Proposed policy responses have included extreme measures such as banning all use and trade of wildlife, or blanket measures for entire Classes. However, different trades pose varying degrees of risk for zoonotic pandemics, while some trades also play critical roles in delivering other key aspects of sustainable development, particularly related to poverty and hunger alleviation, decent work, responsible consumption and production, and life on land and below water. Here we describe how wildlife trade contributes to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in diverse ways, with synergies and trade-offs within and between the SDGs. In doing so, we show that prohibitions could result in severe trade-offs against some SDGs, with limited benefits for public health via pandemic prevention. This complexity necessitates context-specific policies, with multi-sector decision-making that goes beyond simple top-down solutions. We encourage decision-makers to adopt a risk-based approach to wildlife trade policy post-COVID-19, with policies formulated via participatory, evidence-based approaches, which explicitly acknowledge uncertainty, complexity, and conflicting values across different components of the SDGs. This should help to ensure that future use and trade of wildlife is safe, environmentally sustainable and socially just.
Booth Hollie, Arias Melissa, Brittain Stephanie, Challender Daniel W. S., Khanyari Munib, Kuiper Timothy, Li Yuhan, Olmedo Alegria, Oyanedel Rodrigo, Pienkowski Thomas, Milner-Gulland E. J.. “Saving Lives, Protecting Livelihoods, and Safeguarding Nature”: Risk-Based Wildlife Trade Policy for Sustainable Development Outcomes Post-COVID-19. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 9(99) 2021. DOI=10.3389/fevo.2021.639216. ISSN=2296-701X.
Published: Feb 2021 | Categories: Research Articles

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